Nobody quits a gym on the day they quit. They quit six weeks earlier, on a Tuesday, when a shift got moved and nothing was said about it on the Thursday.
By the time the payment stops, the decision is old. What you get is a text three months later — "hey, sorry, work has been insane" — and a name you have to stop looking for on the mat.
Nothing here predicts anything. There is no score, no model, no software opinion about what somebody is going to do next. These are four counts that are already true, sitting in records your gym makes anyway. The only thing that changes is whether you see them in the week they happen or at the end of the quarter.
1. Days since their last check-in
The plainest one. A member with fourteen days and no check-in is flagged away, and that flag beats everything else on their card — somebody can be your best student in every other respect and still be gone.
Fourteen is not a magic number. It is roughly where "swamped at work" and "finished" stop looking different from behind the front desk. Most gaps shorter than that close on their own. Longer than that, somebody has to say something, and it is a far easier thing to say on day fifteen than on day fifty.
2. Check-ins per week, across the last eight weeks
One number tells you almost nothing. The shape tells you everything.
The window is eight weeks, one bar per week, with empty weeks seeded as zero so a gap shows up as a gap instead of quietly closing on the chart.
Three, three, three, two, one, zero is a story you can read from across the room. So is two, zero, two, zero, two — and that second student never stopped. They changed jobs. Treating them like a quitter is its own kind of insult, which is why the weekly shape matters more than any single total.
It runs the other way too: four or more check-ins in that window, with strengths logged or a good attitude on record, is what puts somebody in the thriving column. Read that list as well. Those are the people who say yes when you ask for help with the kids' class.
3. The techniques they have flagged themselves
This is the one that moves before attendance does.
Students rate what was taught, in the classes they actually attended. Anything rated low, or marked as confusing, lands in a needs-work list on their profile — recurring ones first, because the same position confusing somebody across three weeks is a coaching problem, not a bad night. Three or more sitting in that list, or two sessions a coach logged with a poor attitude, marks the student as needing attention while they are still turning up.
A student quietly drowning in one position and telling nobody is a student whose Tuesdays are getting easier to skip.
4. Whether their dues are actually running
The last one is not about the mat at all.
Your revenue report counts active member plans only. When a plan stops — card expired, plan never assigned, card setup never finished — that person leaves the number without leaving the roster, and the membership report moves them from active to inactive. On the billing screen they are a badge: active, comped, trial, awaiting card, past due, no plan.
Money stopping before the person does is common, and it is often not a decision at all. Sometimes it is a bank reissuing a card. That is a thirty-second fix if anybody notices in the same week it happens.
The week you spot it
At this point the software has done its whole job. It found the who and the when. It has nothing to say about the why and should not pretend otherwise.
What works is what has always worked: ask. Not a campaign, not a broadcast — one conversation with one person about the specific thing you noticed. And you have specifics to open with: the weeks they trained, the position they keep flagging, the notes your coaches left, the rounds they logged at open mat.
Sequences are for the second tier — the names that went quiet months ago and were never going to get a personal call. There is a prebuilt win-back you can rewrite in your own words, and nothing sends in your name until a coach reads it and approves it. Email is included; texts come out of pre-paid credits and are charged per message. If it turns out to be the card, they can fix that themselves from their own billing page. You send a link, not an invoice conversation.
None of it keeps anybody. It moves when you find out from months later to the week it happened, which is the only window where any of this is still a conversation.